The economy-wide impacts of climate change and irrigation development in the Nile Basin

The economy-wide impacts of climate change and irrigation development in the Nile Basin: A computable general equilibrium approach

Kahsay, Tewodros Negash (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)
Kuik, Onno (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Brouwer, Roy (University of Waterloo)
van der Zaag, P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

2017-02-01

A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC's A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.

climate change
Computable general equilibrium
irrigation development
Nile River Basin

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0633ddf4-1b3f-4e64-871c-a831484af159

https://doi.org/10.1142/S201000781750004X

2018-03-01

2010-0078

Climate Change Economics, 8 (1)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2017 Tewodros Negash Kahsay, Onno Kuik, Roy Brouwer, P. van der Zaag