Print Email Facebook Twitter Phasing out support schemes for renewables in neighbouring countries Title Phasing out support schemes for renewables in neighbouring countries: An agent-based model with investment preferences Author Melliger, Marc (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam) Chappin, E.J.L. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie) Date 2022 Abstract Support schemes have been central to the expansion of renewable electricity globally and in the European Union. As technologies mature, individual member states may decide to phase out these policies. While previous research has shown that such policy changes affect investors’ decisions, we investigate how they affect pathways and electricity prices by simulating investment decisions in an agent-based model in two case countries. This paper contributes and applies an adapted investment decision algorithm that incorporates empirically observed technology and return preferences and is calibrated by return observations. The new algorithm yields more refined and stronger effects compared to its predecessor. Results show that the phase-out of auctions in Germany and the Netherlands slows down their deployment of renewable capacity by up to ∼60% and ∼35%, respectively. With the exception of photovoltaics and onshore wind projects in the Netherlands, the targeted capacities can only be reached by continuing support in both countries. Furthermore, ending support in a large country like Germany leads to higher electricity prices and fosters a market-driven but insufficient capacity expansion in smaller neighbours like the Netherlands. As the electricity grids in many countries are strongly interconnected, such cross-border effects are of international relevance. Our findings suggest that continued auctions may be necessary and that countries should coordinate policy changes to stay on track for meeting their renewables targets. Subject Agent-based modelsCross-border effectsElectricity marketsEnergy policyRenewable energySupport schemes To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1aa0ee3c-5d12-4ec5-868c-aae8f7ec68c3 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117959 Embargo date 2022-04-07 ISSN 0306-2619 Source Applied Energy, 305 Bibliographical note Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2022 Marc Melliger, E.J.L. Chappin Files PDF 1_s2.0_S0306261921012666_main.pdf 2.86 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:1aa0ee3c-5d12-4ec5-868c-aae8f7ec68c3/datastream/OBJ/view