Developing a Generic Agent-Based Model to Explore Servicising Policy

Developing a Generic Agent-Based Model to Explore Servicising Policy

Kisjes, K.H.

Nikolic, I. (mentor)

Technology, Policy and Management

ESS

SEPAM

2014-01-28

Continuous economic growth, ignoring the incidental recession, is currently still coupled with increases in the use of resources and generation of wastes. The European Commission (EC) is looking for ways to achieve absolute decoupling between economic growth and environmental impacts. A shift from product-based to function-based production and consumption, known as `servicising' of the economy, has the potential to contribute to absolute decoupling. The EC is therefore looking for policy measures on all political levels that may stimulate a servicising shift and thereby contribute to absolute decoupling. In this thesis, I propose a generic agent-based model to inform policy towards absolute decoupling, with a focus on the role of servicising. The model captures interactions between selling and buying `agents' and can be parametrised for many different specific markets. It integrates rational and non-rational considerations, decision making on multiple levels of both producers and consumers, and resulting material flows and impacts, all in a generic way. Also, the model features sophisticated market research as a novel basis for the decision making of agents in an artificial market. The model was developed following the methodology for developing an agent-based model proposed by Van Dam, Nikolic and Lukszo \citep{Dam2012}. A substantial part of this thesis is reserved for a reflection on the methodology. The main conclusion from that part is that although the methodology provides valuable structure to help new modellers through model development, the recommended techniques and practices are mostly suitable for relatively small, domain-specific models. Additional practices are recommended in order to successfully build large and generic models. The proposed model is suitable for the three planned case studies in the pan-European SPREE project, of which the generic model development constituted a central part. The concluding sections of this thesis provide suggestions for future extensions of the model, including the inclusion of social networks, spatial explicitness and chain-level interactions.

agent-based modelling
servicising
absolute decoupling
policy exploration
behavioural economics

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1e79edc8-392e-453f-90b6-703c91eb1127

Student theses

master thesis

(c) 2014 Kisjes, K.H.