A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes

A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes

Spekkers, M.H.
Kok, M.
Clemens, F.H.L.R.
Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

2012-12-31

In this paper, a database of water-related insurance damage claims related to private properties and content was analysed. The aim was to investigate whether high numbers of damage claims were associated with high rainfall intensities. Rainfall data were used for the period of 2003–2010 in the Netherlands based on a network of 33 automatic rain gauges operated by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Insurance damage data were aggregated to areas within 10-km range of the rain gauges. Through a logistic regression model, high claim numbers were linked to maximum rainfall intensities, with rainfall intensity based on 10-min to 4-h time windows. Rainfall intensity proved to be a significant damage predictor; however, the explained variance, approximated by a pseudo-R2 statistic, was at most 34% for property damage and at most 30% for content damage. When directly comparing predicted and observed values, the model was able to predict 5–17% more cases correctly compared to a random prediction. No important differences were found between relations with property and content damage data. A considerable fraction of the variance is left unexplained, which emphasizes the need to study damage generating mechanisms and additional explanatory variables.

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:23053fb8-d230-4747-b233-a99ca69b7cec

https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-11615-2012

Copernicus, GmbH

1812-2108

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9(10)2012

Institutional Repository

journal article

(c) 2012 Spekkers, M.H., Kok, M., Clemens, F.H.L.R., Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.