Print Email Facebook Twitter Urban growth modeling to predict the changes in the urban microclimate and urban water cycle Title Urban growth modeling to predict the changes in the urban microclimate and urban water cycle Author Veerbeek, W. Denekew, H.B. Pathirana, A. Brdjanovic, T. Zevenbergen, C. Kuzniecow Bacchin, T. Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Hydraulic Engineering Date 2011-09-14 Abstract The consequences of urban growth on the exposure, sensitivity but also as a driver of flooding are often underexposed. Yet, the rate of current urbanization is unprecedented and might increase future flood risk dramatically. To gain insight in this issue, a study on urban development has been performed using 3 case study areas: the megacities of Beijing, and Mumbai and 1 regular city: Can Tho, Vietnam. Using a physically urban growth model, future growth patterns are obtained that show land cover transformations for the years 2035 and 2060. The growth patterns are based on historical data and a business as usual scenario to gain insight in the impactions of current growth rates. The outcomes have been analyzed in relation to pluvial flooding sensitivities based on the distribution of impervious areas. For the Mumbai case study, the same input is provided used to investigate potential changes in the microclimate by application of a modified mesocale atmospheric model. The outcomes show significant changes in flood risk and precipitation levels, urging for ‘smart growth’ policies to secure a sustainable future for the investigated megacities To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2dc889f0-6281-434c-b7e2-06db930b3bad Publisher International Water Association Source Proceedings of the 12th International conference on urban drainage, 11-16 September (2011), Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights (c) 2013 Veerbeek, W.Denekew, H.B.Pathirana, A.Brdjanovic, T.Zevenbergen, C.Kuzniecow Bacchin, T. Files PDF 293310.pdf 468.21 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:2dc889f0-6281-434c-b7e2-06db930b3bad/datastream/OBJ/view