Print Email Facebook Twitter Irrigation development under uncertainty Title Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways Author Prasad, Pooja (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education) Duker, Annelieke (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education) de Fraiture, Charlotte (Wageningen University & Research; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education) van der Zaag, P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education) Date 2023 Abstract There is an urgent need in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to enhance irrigation access to meet the challenges of growing population and climate risk. To achieve this, big investments are currently planned in large irrigation infrastructure. We believe there is danger in following this conventional approach, which requires big lumpsum investments, locking large capital into projects that do not adapt to deep uncertainties from climatic or socio-political factors. Instead, in this Perspective article, we propose an alternate “adaptive investment pathways” (AdIP) approach for planning step-wise investments towards desired objectives, implemented progressively depending on how the future unfolds, in order to gain flexibility. AdIP extends the adaptation pathways concept, which refers to a sequence of actions to be taken in response to a changing reality, and applies it to the context of development under uncertainty. Monitoring and learning is at the heart of this approach, which ensures that the plan adapts as new knowledge becomes available. Thus, AdIP internalizes risk and reduces chances of failures. For financial institutions backing development projects, following a pathway of smaller de-centralized investments lowers risk and incorporates a learning approach that allows re-thinking and adapting along the path. We illustrate the AdIP approach using the case of ephemeral sand river based small-scale irrigation in the drylands of SSA. We conclude that in face of deep uncertainties, the path to successful irrigation development in SSA requires a shift from making few large upfront investments in large-scale projects to making large numbers of smaller investments that assure flexibility. Subject Adaptation pathwaysDevelopmentInvestmentsIrrigationSub-Saharan AfricaUncertainty To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3a13b6d2-d035-490d-bc86-2bdfbbd8f635 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.017 ISSN 1462-9011 Source Environmental Science & Policy, 140, 104-110 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2023 Pooja Prasad, Annelieke Duker, Charlotte de Fraiture, P. van der Zaag Files PDF 1_s2.0_S1462901122003653_main.pdf 2.08 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:3a13b6d2-d035-490d-bc86-2bdfbbd8f635/datastream/OBJ/view