Print Email Facebook Twitter A decision support system for use of probability forecasts Title A decision support system for use of probability forecasts Author De Kleermaeker, S. Verkade, J.S. Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Hydraulic Engineering Date 2013-05-12 Abstract Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers’ increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a more strict separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. A recent study identified some issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. These add a dimension to an already multi-dimensional problem, making it increasingly difficult for decision makers to extract relevant information from a forecast. Secondly, while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be fully known, including estimates of flood damage and costs and effect of damage reducing measures. Here, we present suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development is outlined. Subject probabilistic forecastpredictive uncertaintyhydrologydecision-makingdecision support system To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3dc8f192-25fc-4b9c-a548-fd78eb2caca5 Publisher ISCRAM ISBN 978-3-923704-80-4 Source ISCRAM 2013: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, Baden-Baden, Germany, 12-15 May 2013 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights (c) 2013 The Author(s)CC Creative Commons Files PDF Verkade_2013.pdf 480.2 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:3dc8f192-25fc-4b9c-a548-fd78eb2caca5/datastream/OBJ/view