Mobility uncertainty influencing flexibility provision by electric vehicles

Mobility uncertainty influencing flexibility provision by electric vehicles: A research to the influence of uncertainty of movements of electric vehicles for providing flexibility to the transmission system operator to balance the electricity system

Kop, Sjoerd (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management)

Warnier, Martijn (mentor)
De Vries, Laurens (mentor)
Nobel, Frank (mentor)

Delft University of Technology

Engineering and Policy Analysis

2020-04-24

As the energy transition is expected to increase the number of imbalances in the following years, more flexibility is needed to mitigate these imbalances. Electric Vehicles (EV) can provide this flexibility by adjusting their charging speed. An aggregator can provide this flexibility of many EVs to the balancing markets. However, since EVs are moving entities of which the exact mobility behaviour is unknown at the time in which the aggregator has to hand in their bids, the aggregator is subject to uncertainty. In this research it has been determined to what extent EV movements influence the potential of EV-flexibility for providing flexibility in the form of FCR (Frequency Containment Reserve).
As can be concluded, the aggregator will have to withhold and uncertainty buffer up to 25 % from their bids to the market to prevent being fined for not being able to provide the full contracted amount of FCR when EV behaviour deviates from the forecasts. This strongly reduces the amount of FCR that can be provided. Secondly it can be concluded that the fines do not sufficiently incentivise the aggregator to withhold enough flexibility from their FCR bids to result in the desired reliability. Lastly, it can be concluded that reducing the length of the FCR bids from 24 hours to 2 hours will increase the amount of FCR that can be provided by EV aggregators with around 20 %.
Further research to this topic is recommended that includes the geographical component of electric vehicles since this will enable to determine the effect of the grid limitations on the potential of providing FCR by making use of EVs. Also it is recommended to add weather forecast and other factors that influence mobility behaviour to the forecast in the model but also take the actual demanded amount of FCR into account since this will enable to more exactly determine the uncertainty buffer that is needed.

Electric Vehicles
Uncertainty
Balancing Market

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3f4f3cb0-2e38-43e5-a8ae-4fb670e28b2b

Student theses

master thesis

© 2020 Sjoerd Kop