Modeling centuries of estuarine morphodynamics in the Western Scheldt estuary

Modeling centuries of estuarine morphodynamics in the Western Scheldt estuary

Dam, G. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; Svašek Hydraulics; Dam Engineering)
van der Wegen, M. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; Deltares)
Labeur, R.J. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics)
Roelvink, D. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; Deltares)

2016-04-28

We hindcast a 110 year period (1860-1970) of morphodynamic behavior of the Western Scheldt estuary by means of a 2-D, high-resolution, process-based model and compare results to a historically unique bathymetric data set. Initially, the model skill decreases for a few decades. Against common perception, the model skill increases after that to become excellent after 110 years. We attribute this to the self-organization of the morphological system which is reproduced correctly by the numerical model. On time scales exceeding decades, the interaction between the major tidal forcing and the confinement of the estuary overrules other uncertainties. Both measured and modeled bathymetries reflect a trend of decreasing energy dissipation, less morphodynamic activity, and thus a more stable morphology over time, albeit that the estuarine adaptation time is long (approximately centuries). Process-based models applied in confined environments and under constant forcing conditions may perform well especially on long (greater than decades) time scales.

estuary
hindcast
long term
morphodynamics
Netherlands
Western Scheldt

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:401eab1e-633d-49ee-bed3-775179fc9a19

https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066725

2016-11-10

0094-8276

Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8), 3839-3847

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2016 G. Dam, M. van der Wegen, R.J. Labeur, D. Roelvink