Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways

Haasnoot, M.; Van Deursen, W.P.A.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Kwakkel, J.H.; Van Beek, E.; Middelkoop, H.

doi:doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.026

Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways

Title

Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways

Author

Haasnoot, M.
Van Deursen, W.P.A.
Guillaume, J.H.A.
Kwakkel, J.H.
Van Beek, E.
Middelkoop, H.

Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Multi Actor Systems

Date

2014-05-26

Abstract

Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of plausible futures. A fast, integrated model can facilitate this. Here, we describe the development and evaluation of such a model, an Integrated Assessment Metamodel (IAMM), to explore adaptation pathways in the Rhine delta for a decision problem currently faced by the Dutch Government. The theory-motivated metamodel is a simplified physically based model. Closed questions reflecting the required accuracy were used to evaluate the model's fitness. The results show that such a model fits the purpose of screening and ranking of policy options and pathways to support the strategic decision making. A complex model can subsequently be used to obtain more detailed information.

Subject

integrated assessment
metamodel
water management
uncertainty
climate change adaptation
Rhine

To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:47a7e309-db58-45cb-9777-20d650f8cd8e

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.026

Publisher

Elsevier

ISSN

1873-6726

Source

Environmental Modelling & Software, 60, 2014