The uncertain future of copper: An Exploratory System Dynamics Model and Analysis of the global copper system in the next 40 years

The uncertain future of copper: An Exploratory System Dynamics Model and Analysis of the global copper system in the next 40 years

Auping, W.L.

Thissen, W.A.H. (mentor)
Pruyt, E. (mentor)
Dijkema, G.P.J. (mentor)
Bastein, A.G.T.M. (mentor)

Technology, Policy and Management

Policy Analysis

Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis and Management

2011-11-10

High copper prices have not led to a place for this metal in the debate about mineral scarcity, while copper is a base metal which has many uses and is vital for developments in the energy transition. In this research the global copper system is examined from the perspective of the development of supply and demand and the effects structural and parametric uncertainties in the system have on the development of behaviour in this system. The question immediately arises: What are the effects of parametric and structural uncertainties on the possible future behaviour of the copper system? The research approach is Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis (ESDMA) and the period the copper system is examined is 2000 till 2050. For the analysis three different System Dynamics (SD) models were built, with regard to existing literature about the structure and functioning of the different elements in the copper system. These models were connected to a python shell to perform the Exploratory Model Analysis (EMA). The effects of a specific ESDMA structure, a randomised economic feed, were first tested in this research. The conclusions were that, mainly due to the fact that this feed mainly influenced stocks in the system, the system behaviour was not significantly different due to this feed. Henceforth the other experiments were performed without the economic feed. During the interpretation of these experiments it became clear that a mistake were made in the experimental setup. The lower bounds for the four coefficients relevant for the Recycling Input Rate (RIR) were taken too low, causing the RIR in effect to have an overly low modus, as well as a lower average value for the copper consumption. While this potentially could have changed the behaviour of the system, a new experiment with the corrected bounds has let to similar outcomes. The behavioural conclusions of these experiments are that the copper consumption is likely to decline slowly in the coming 40 years. This reduction in consumption also leads to very high Reserve over Production (R/P) ratios. The system has further a high risk for volatile price movements, caused by a disbalance between copper supply and demand. This and the importance of copper for our economy make it a vulnerable resource, which needs to be monitored more closely. Six different policy designs were tested in this research to try to counter potential unwanted effects in the copper system. These policies were designed from the perspective of European stakeholders. Performing experiments with these policies has lead to the conclusion that policies aiming at improving the collection rate of copper products at their end of life in combination with improving the Recycling Efficiency Rate (RER) leads on average to lower copper prices. The copper price volatility was lowered by a policy regarding the implementation of a strategic reserve.

Copper
Mineral scarcity
Energy transition
System Dynamics
Exploratory Modelling and Analysis
Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4998f817-848d-4879-9d5f-2c0bd9ee4c81

Student theses

master thesis

(c) 2011 Auping, W.L.