Simulating the flexibility potential of demand response with heat pumps in the Netherlands

Simulating the flexibility potential of demand response with heat pumps in the Netherlands

van Etten, Max (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management; TU Delft Multi Actor Systems)

Warnier, Martijn (mentor)

Delft University of Technology

Complex Systems Engineering and Management (CoSEM)

2017-11-03

The growth of electricity generated by renewables increases the intermittency of the Dutch electricity production. To deal with this, the Dutch power system requires a higher amount of flexibility in the future. Demand response with heat pumps is one of the options with a high potential to provide flexibility, because it offers the potential to store energy close to demand. In this thesis, the potential for electricity cost reduction with demand response with heat pumps for space heating by using the thermal inertia of buildings in the Netherlands is investigated. The effect of different heat load profiles, seasonality, and different comfort requirements on the economic potential demand response with heat pumps is analysed. An existing Matlab model is revised and expanded to perform simulations with different cluster types, seasons and predefined comfort limits. The model simulates the DR algorithm, R.E.X., and shifts the load of clusters based upon their thermal demand and the EPEX market prices within the predefined technical and consumer flexibility constraints, to analyse the potential of operational cost reductions of DR with heat pumps. Therefore, the key input parameters of the model are: (1) the thermal demand, (2) electricity market prices, and (3) the flexibility constraints. The key output parameters are: (1) the operational savings in euro, (2) the operational savings in percentage, and (3) the amount of shifted load. The model design, behaviour and results are validated with an expert validation.
It is concluded, that DR with heat pumps can facilitate flexible balancing of supply and demand by aggregators in the Netherlands. The potential of DR with heat pumps for different stakeholders can increase depending upon the penetration of RES-E, heat pumps and EVs. Current obstacles for the development of DR of heat pumps are the high share of fixed energy taxes and the reduced efficiency and lifetime of the heat pump when DR is used. Designing flexible tariffs and a focus on flexibility in the re-design of heat pumps can take these obstacles away.

Flexibility
Demand Response
Heat pumps
Heat load profiles
Seasonality
comfort requirements

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Student theses

master thesis