Title
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Author
Frieler, Katja (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Lange, Stefan (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Piontek, Franziska (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Reyer, Christopher P.O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Schewe, Jacob (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Warszawski, Lila (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Zhao, Fang (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Chini, Louise (University of Maryland)
Denvil, Sebastien (LOCEAN)
Emanuel, Kerry (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Geiger, Tobias (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Halladay, Kate (Met Office)
Hurtt, George (University of Maryland)
Mengel, Matthias (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Murakami, Daisgbre (Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
Ostberg, Sebastian (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)
Popp, Alexander (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Riva, R.E.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy) 
Stevanovic, Miodrag (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
SuzGBRi, Tatsuo (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)
Volkholz, Jan (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Burke, Eleanor (Met Office)
Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment)
Ebi, Kristie (University of Washington)
Eddy, Tyler D. (Dalhousie University; University of British Columbia)
Elliott, Joshua (Columbia University; University of Chicago)
Galbraith, Eric (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA))
Gosling, Simon N. (University of Nottingham)
Hattermann, Fred (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Hickler, Thomas (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F))
Hinkel, Jochen (Global Climate Forum; Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)
Hof, Christian (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F))
Huber, Veronika (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Jägermeyr, Jonas (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Krysanova, Valentina (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Marcé, Rafael (Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA))
Müller Schmied, Hannes (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F); Goethe University)
Mouratiadou, Ioanna (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Universiteit Utrecht)
Pierson, Don (Uppsala University)
Tittensor, Derek P. (Dalhousie University; United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre)
Vautard, Robert (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment)
Van Vliet, Michelle (Wageningen University & Research)
Biber, Matthias F. (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F))
Betts, Richard A. (Met Office; Hatherly Laboratories)
Leon Bodirsky, Benjamin (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Deryng, Delphine (Columbia University; Climate Analytics)
Frolking, Steve (University of New Hampshire Durham)
Jones, Chris D. (Met Office)
Lotze, Heike K. (Dalhousie University)
Lotze-Campen, Hermann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)
Sahajpal, Ritvik (University of Maryland)
Thonicke, Kirsten (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Tian, Hanqin (Auburn University; Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Yamagata, Yoshiki (National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan)
Date
2017-11-30
Abstract
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a <q>special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways</q>. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C , including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
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http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:671e7255-c6dd-47da-9191-6b25578cbfed
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
ISSN
1991-959X
Source
Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (12), 4321-4345
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2017 Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisgbre Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, R.E.M. Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo SuzGBRi, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle Van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, Yoshiki Yamagata