ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound

Smets, P.S.M. (TU Delft Applied Geophysics and Petrophysics; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
Assink, J. D. (DIF)
Le Pichon, A. (DIF)
Evers, L.G. (TU Delft Applied Geophysics and Petrophysics; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

2016-05-16

Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere-Troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near-continuous infrasound from the volcano Mount Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high-resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire time span the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity of the predicted wavefront characteristics with a minimal back azimuth difference. Best performance for all forecasts is obtained in summer. The difference between the infrasound observations and the predictions based on the forecasts is significantly larger during the 2013 SSW period for all forecasts. Simulations show that the SSW onset is better captured by the 10 day forecast while the recovery is better captured by the nowcast.

forecast evaluation
infrasound
middle atmosphere
SSW

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6fd95ec9-d063-41bf-8f3a-4426875e4c45

https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024251

2016-12-05

2169-897X

Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121 (9), 4637-4650

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2016 P.S.M. Smets, J. D. Assink, A. Le Pichon, L.G. Evers