Print Email Facebook Twitter The treatment of uncertainty in airport strategic planning Title The treatment of uncertainty in airport strategic planning Author Kwakkel, J.H. Contributor Walker, W.E. (promotor) Van Wee, G.P. (promotor) Faculty Technology, Policy and Management Department Policy Analysis Date 2010-12-06 Abstract The treatment of uncertainty in the long-term planning of infrastructures in general and of mainports such as airports and seaports is a key challenge for decisionmakers. Moreover, these uncertainties have increased over the last decades due to changes in owner structure, changes in rules and regulations, and the ever increasing connectedness of the world. This dissertation explores how the treatment of uncertainties in airport planning can be improved. Currently, the treatment is limited to one or a few forecasts for the future. Such an approach limits the exploration of the multiplicity of futures to those that are judged to be most likely. However, if the last decade has taught is anything, then it is that the future will be substantially different from the one we are anticipating now. The implication of this for decisionmaking is that any plan or policy optimized for one or a few forecasts is likely to perform poorly. An alternative approach that is capable of handling the multiplicity of futures and accepts the limits on predictability is needed. Such an approach should result in a plans consist of time-urgent low regret options that can be taken immediately, while establishing a framework for guiding future actions. Thus the decisionmaker is able to adapt the plan to the way in which the future unfolds. This dissertation presents such a dynamic adaptive planning approach, tailors this approach to the specifics of airport planning, and provides computational evidence for the efficacy of plans that are designed utilizing this approach. Subject uncertaintyadaptive policymakingairport strategic planningexploratory modeling and analysistext mining To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:78b2437e-8517-4da3-ad03-67a9443aebfb Publisher Haveka Embargo date 2010-12-06 ISBN 9789055841387 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type doctoral thesis Rights (c) 2010 Kwakkel, J.H. Files PDF updated_thesis.pdf 1.13 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:78b2437e-8517-4da3-ad03-67a9443aebfb/datastream/OBJ/view