Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

Haasnoot, M.
Schellekens, J.
Beersma, J.J.
Middelkoop, H.
Kwadijk, J.C.J.

Technology, Policy and Management

Multi Actor Systems

2015-10-21

Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and same experiments.Weargue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

adaptation pathways
adaptation tipping points
serious game
rainfall generator
signposts
adaptive water management
deep uncertainty

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:89e5eed6-c56d-4e41-aed6-f988f90d538c

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105008

IOP

1748-9326

Environmental Research Letters, 10, 2015

Institutional Repository

journal article

(c)2015 The Authors
Published under de terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence