Print Email Facebook Twitter Investigating the Influence of Conditional Simulation on Small-Probability Failure Events Using Subset Simulation Title Investigating the Influence of Conditional Simulation on Small-Probability Failure Events Using Subset Simulation Author van den Eijnden, A.P. (TU Delft Geo-engineering) Hicks, M.A. (TU Delft Geo-engineering) Vardon, P.J. (TU Delft Geo-engineering) Date 2017-06-01 Abstract Spatial variation of soil strength parameters is a dominating uncertainty in slope stability analysis. This uncertainty can be accounted for in a stochastic description, based on a global geostatistical characterization of the soil strength parameters, which leads to a wide range of possible slope responses, of which only a small proportion typically concern slope failure. This paper investigates the effect of including additional data to reduce the range of possible scenarios in the stability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. Subset simulation, which is a technique to focus the random sampling of Monte Carlo analyses in the region of interest, is used here to address the already small probabilities of slope failure. The reduction in the range of possible scenarios with respect to both the probability of failure and modes of failure is then investigated. The strong reduction in the range of expected failure modes through conditional simulation demonstrates the uncertainty reduction and the relationship between the distribution of weaker zones in the slope and the development of sliding surfaces. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:901e26e0-58bc-4c5f-b48a-06025bfb0c65 Embargo date 2018-07-01 ISBN 9780784480717 Source 6th international symposium on geotechnical safety and risk: Geo-Risk 2017 Event 6th international symposium on geotechnical safety and risk, 2017-06-04 → 2017-06-07, Denver, United States Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights © 2017 A.P. van den Eijnden, M.A. Hicks, P.J. Vardon Files PDF 205_EijndenHicksVardon_co ... rected.pdf 748.8 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:901e26e0-58bc-4c5f-b48a-06025bfb0c65/datastream/OBJ/view