Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate

Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate

Kaitna, Roland (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)
Prenner, David (BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)
Switanek, Matt (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz)
Maraun, Douglas (Karl-Franzens-Universitat Graz)
Stoffel, Markus (Université de Genève)
Hrachowitz, M. (TU Delft Water Resources)

2023

Debris-flow activity is strongly controlled by hydro-meteorological trigger conditions, which are expected to change in a future climate. In this study we connect a regional hydro-meteorological susceptibility model for debris flows with climate projections until 2100 to assess changes of the frequency of critical trigger conditions for different trigger types (long-lasting rainfall, short-duration storm, snow-melt, rain-on-snow) in six regions in the Austrian Alps. We find limited annual changes of the number of days critical for debris-flow initiation when averaged over all regions, but distinct changes when separating between hydro-meteorological trigger types and study region. Changes become more evident at the monthly/seasonal scale, with a general trend of critical debris-flow trigger conditions earlier in the year. The outcomes of this study serve as a basis for the development of adaption strategies for future risk management.

Climate change
Debris-flow initiation
Hydrological modeling
Trigger conditions

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:90e4210e-2653-48e2-ad9a-067ef837b353

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162227

0048-9697

Science of the Total Environment, 872

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2023 Roland Kaitna, David Prenner, Matt Switanek, Douglas Maraun, Markus Stoffel, M. Hrachowitz