Print Email Facebook Twitter Exploring potential implications of automated inland shipping on the Dutch waterway infrastructure Title Exploring potential implications of automated inland shipping on the Dutch waterway infrastructure: A scenario analysis Author van Terwisga, Wouter (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management) Contributor van Wee, G.P. (mentor) Annema, J.A. (mentor) Quist, J.N. (mentor) Degree granting institution Delft University of Technology Programme Management of Technology (MoT) Date 2019-09-22 Abstract Automated shipping is a technology which is highly anticipated by many actors in the inland shipping sector. Rijkswaterstaat, as the manager of the main inland waterways in the Netherlands, wants to be prepared for this technology. As the technology is still very immature, this research has attempted to reduce the amount of uncertainty in the effects and implications of this technology using a scenario analysis approach. As a result, the main research question is as follows: “What are the potential physical and digital implications for the waterway infrastructure of Rijkswaterstaat due to automated inland shipping in the Netherlands by 2050?”. As little research has been done regarding this topic, this research used literature regarding the diffusion and implementation of high-tech technologies and applied the insights from theory into a scenario analysis. This research used the intuitive logics approach for scenario analysis to develop four scenarios based on drivers, factors, and trends as found during nine expert interviews. Nine interviews were conducted to assess the uncertain trends in the development of automated inland shipping. As a result, technological development and niche development were found as the main trends that highly influence the technology and are both very uncertain. The resulting scenarios were called “Into the roots”, “Fairway bound”, “Business as Usual”, and “Market segmentation”. When the development of the scenarios was finished, an implication analysis was performed to answer the main research question. This was done by conducting an expert workshop. Six experts from Rijkswaterstaat, in the field of waterway management, and infrastructural design were present during the workshop. The scenarios were validated by the experts, and an open discussion was held to assess the implications per scenario. The results of the workshop were afterwards documented and analysed. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:913b8c19-5774-4984-9a38-a4db1459e9e9 Part of collection Student theses Document type master thesis Rights © 2019 Wouter van Terwisga Files PDF Thesis_Wouter_van_Terwisga.pdf 5.08 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:913b8c19-5774-4984-9a38-a4db1459e9e9/datastream/OBJ/view