Print Email Facebook Twitter A Multidisciplinary approach to Tsunami Risk Management: A proposal for a framework based on a case study of Iquique Title A Multidisciplinary approach to Tsunami Risk Management: A proposal for a framework based on a case study of Iquique Author Van Blokland, J. De Groot, P. Rot, M. Wieringa, S. Wijnands, R. Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Geoscience & Engineering - Hydraulic Engineering Date 2013-10-01 Abstract In this multidisciplinary project a proposal for a framework for tsunami risk management in Chile, has been developed. This was done using Iquique in the north of Chile as a case study. Solutions for improvement of current practice have been searched within specific activity areas of hazard management: prediction, mitigation and response. Prediction concerns the available intelligence on the chance of occurrence and the related force of the tsunami event. For this, earthquake (and resulting tsunami) scenarios have been defined and modeled with NeoWave in order to establish probable boundary conditions for the rest of the research. A scenario based on the conditions described by [Chlieh et al., 2011b], with a Mw. 8.8, turned out to have the worst results (runup of 12m max, inundation of almost 10m max, and arrival time less than 12 min). Based on these results estimations have been made of the number of people at risk and economic damage. The number of people at risk was derived from zonal data from [SINTIA, 2010] and resulted in at least 12,500 people living in inundated areas. Direct economic damage was derived using fragility curves [Mas et al., 2012b] and building value estimations [Blong, 2001], and resulted in 14:90M damage in an Iquique downtown area and 142M damage in the Zofri shopping mall area. For mitigation of tsunami effects, prevention of the tsunami event (e.g. by means of breakwaters) has not been taken into account. Focus has been on city evacuation, possible slope failures of infrastructure, and possibilities of vertical evacuation. For city evacuation remarkable differences between inundation maps from SHOA, ONEMI, the Municipality of Iquique, and our model results were indicated, from which the cause is not clear. An optimistic calculation on evacuation possibilities of the Zofri shopping mall has shown that only 6,000 people (from 10,000 people present during peak hour) could escape. A slope failure analysis of the main exit from the Zofri area and the highway A16 has indicated that both slopes are instable. Additional geo analyses pointed out that safety zones in higher grounds are stable, that there's a lack of knowledge on liquefaction of quaywalls (which could be troublesome for port evacuation routes), and that scouring of sidewalks is likely (however it will not occur during evacuation). An initial analysis on high buildings in Iquique resulted in 56 buildings that have been examined for vertical evacuation and two areas that lack any possibilities for vertical evacuation (Zofri and the port). An hydraulic load analysis has been done, based on both NeoWave model results and analytical approach. After a comparative stability analysis with available criteria for seismic loads, 21 buildings in Iquique were marked as suitable for vertical evacuation. Subject Tsunamiearthquakemitigation To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9aa06388-b468-423b-a240-51d3c227ceb8 Publisher TU Delft, Departments Hydraulic Engineering - Geoscience & Engineering Coordinates -20.216875, -70.152341 Source Master project report Part of collection Student theses Document type student report Rights © 2013 The Authors Files PDF MP136_Chili_report.pdf 22.42 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:9aa06388-b468-423b-a240-51d3c227ceb8/datastream/OBJ/view