Development of Delft Central: An underground decision problem application of decision analysis at Ballast Nedam Engineering

Development of Delft Central: An underground decision problem application of decision analysis at Ballast Nedam Engineering

De Jong, P.J.

Vrijling, J.K. (mentor)
Horstmeier, T.H.W. (mentor)
Bedford, T. (mentor)
Verweij, A. (mentor)

Civil Engineering and Geosciences

2000-08-01

Following from the increasing demand for "Design & Construct" and property development projects, Ballast Nedam is looking for a methodology that can support the decision making process in order to create a good competition in the new market. The objective of this study is to investigate the application of a Decision Analysis in early phases of project development projects of Ballast Nedam subsidiaries. Present decision making at projects of the group Plan Development of Ballast Nedam Engineering is based on a qualitative approach on the interest of the client. A clear insight in the consequences of alternative actions is missing. Risk identification is only performed in a qualitative way. Decision supporting techniques as the decision tree and the influence diagram are both tools that are able to describe the decision situation based on a single attribute. When multiple interests play a role, a rational decision can be derived from a Multi Attribute Utility Technique (MAUT), which combines the outcome of the single attribute decision trees in a decision table. A better insight of the value can be achieved if a probabilistic approach is used. The sensitivity of the outcome of the variables that measure the value of the attributes can be investigated by the use of a tornado diagram. Insight in the sensitivity can form a basis for risk management activities. The above decision supporting techniques are assessed by application in a particular case such as the feasibility study of "Delft Central". The determination of the optimum decision between selected variants is based on the performance of a Decision Analysis that forces to create a clear structure of the scope, objectives and uncertainties influencing the decision problem. The high number of interests of the decision making "steering group", results in a high number of attributes. Based on influence diagrams of the variables that measure the attributes, an influence diagram of the complete decision model is performed. The whole process is facilitated by the use of a numerical model that produces quantified decision trees. After concluding the most attractive variant, an evaluation of the possible outcomes of it is performed, which leads to final conclusions concerning decision making.

tunnel
railroad

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9ea116dd-93de-4c7b-a3a8-cb49021b0f84

TU Delft, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Hydraulic Engineering

Student theses

master thesis

(c) 2000 De Jong, P.J.