Print Email Facebook Twitter Hybrid Cross-Impact Analysis Model Title Hybrid Cross-Impact Analysis Model Author Lee, C. Contributor De Jong, P. (mentor) Binnekamp, R. (mentor) Faculty Architecture Department Real Estate & Housing Programme Real Estate Management Date 2011-06-15 Abstract A rational decision-making under risk is based on two conditions, modeled risk and completed information. However, due to the nature of real estate development, complex, unique and dynamic, it is difficult for developers to obtain relevant historical data and consequently the probability cannot be readily calculated. They have to deal with the unexpected circumstances which change constantly within development process. Fast track construction has received considerable attention with its’ time related benefitover the last decade. By design and construction phase overlapping and work packages overlapping, its time saving feature has placed it as a possible alternative to the traditional more sequential method. But fast track construction often results in unexpected extra cost and does not necessarily lead to shorter project duration. In this research the hybrid cross-impact analysis (CIA) model is developed to assist developers in risk-based decision-making. The aim of the CIA method is to refine the probabilities relating to the occurrence of individual future developments to the point that these probabilities can be used either as the basis for planning or as the basis for developing scenarios that subsequently can be used in planning. The hybrid CIA model integrates the strengths of two major practitioners of the CIA method, INTERAX and BASICS model, which can avoid fatiguing and tedious data collection and generate internally consistent scenarios to identify conditions leading to major changes in fast track construction project. Furthermore, with aid of Monte Carlo simulation the hybrid CIA model can also quick response to dynamic situation changes in real estate development projects. Subject decision-making To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9ec41023-16bb-4bb0-8698-deb531cd26cd Embargo date 2011-06-23 Part of collection Student theses Document type master thesis Rights (c) 2011 Lee, C. Files PDF P5_report_Eliot_Lee_1531204.pdf 15.34 MB PDF Poster-1.pdf 86.9 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:9ec41023-16bb-4bb0-8698-deb531cd26cd/datastream/OBJ1/view