Title
On de-bunking “Fake News” in the post-truth era: How to reduce statistical error in research
Author
Flyvbjerg, Bent (University of Oxford)
Ansar, Atif (University of Oxford)
Budzier, Alexander (University of Oxford)
Buhl, Søren (Aalborg University)
Cantarelli, Chantal (University of Sheffield)
Garbuio, Massimo (University of Sydney)
Glenting, Carsten (Viegand Maagøe A/S)
Holm, Mette Skamris (Aalborg Municipality)
Lovallo, Dan (University of Sydney)
Molin, E.J.E. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics) 
Rønnest, Arne (The National Center for Coastal Fishing and Angling)
Stewart, Allison (University of Oxford; Infrastructure Victoria)
van Wee, G.P. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics)
Date
2019
Abstract
The authors note with alarm that statistical noise caused by statistical incompetence is beginning to creep into research on cost overrun in public investment projects, contaminating research with work that does not meet basic standards of validity and reliability. The paper gives examples of such work and proposes three heuristics to root out the problem. First, researchers who are not statisticians, or do not have a strong background in statistics, should abstain from doing statistical analysis, and instead rely on more experienced colleagues, preferably professional statisticians. Second, journal referees should clearly state their level of statistical proficiency to journal editors, so these can set the right referee team. Finally, journal editors should make sure that at least one referee is capable of reviewing the statistical and methodological aspects of a paper. The work under review would have benefitted from observing these simple heuristics, as would any work based on statistical analysis.
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9f8dc0a4-198b-4488-8057-eccdca2e5edd
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.06.011
Embargo date
2020-01-05
ISSN
0965-8564
Source
Transportation Research. Part A: Policy & Practice, 126, 409-411
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2019 Bent Flyvbjerg, Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier, Søren Buhl, Chantal Cantarelli, Massimo Garbuio, Carsten Glenting, Mette Skamris Holm, Dan Lovallo, E.J.E. Molin, Arne Rønnest, Allison Stewart, G.P. van Wee