Print Email Facebook Twitter Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in the Netherlands Title Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in the Netherlands Author Eker, S. Van Daalen, C. Faculty Technology, Policy and Management Department Multi Actor Systems Date 2012-07-22 Abstract Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to significantly decline in the next 25 years. However, the development of unconventional gas in the Netherlands is surrounded by several uncertainties. In addition to parameter uncertainties, uncertainties in the boundaries and structures of the models used in the analysis of this future development play an important role. This study aims to investigate the effects of such uncertainties on the production rate of unconventional gas, by combining the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method with four different SD models. The results show a wide range of production rate possibilities, where the variety is mostly caused by the model uncertainties. This study can be extended with more model alternatives, and the results of this study can be used in further analysis for robust policy making. Subject system dynamicsexploratory modeling and analysisunconventional gasnatural gasuncertainty To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:9ff43d69-af30-465f-a7ec-40f0bcc3595e Publisher System Dynamics Society ISBN 978-1-935056-10-2 Source Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 22-26 July 2012 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights (c) 2012 The Author(s) Files PDF 285596.pdf 1.11 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:9ff43d69-af30-465f-a7ec-40f0bcc3595e/datastream/OBJ/view