A Hitchhiker’s Guide to Energy Transition Within 1.5 ^oC

A Hitchhiker’s Guide to Energy Transition Within 1.5 ^oC: Backcasting Scenario for 100% Decarbonization of the Global Energy System by 2050

van Exter, Pieter (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management)

Blok, Kornelis (mentor)
de Jong, Wiebren (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Industrial Ecology

2017-10-31

Limiting global temperature increase by 1.5 ̊C rather than 2 ̊C reduces the impacts of climate change significantly (Knutti et al., 2015; Schleussner et al., 2016). It requires a rigorous transition of the global energy system in a very short time span. Though, the published energy scenarios that focus on 1.5 ̊C are limited (Peters, 2016). In this thesis, a backcasting study is conducted to develop a global energy transition scenario to stay within 1.5 ̊C, reaching net zero emissions by 2050. The backcasting framework comprises of six different steps of analysing: 1) goals and constraints, 2) current production and consumption, 3) future demand for energy services, 4) final energy demand, 5) outline the energy supply, 6) describe the implications. The growing population and economy are expected to come with an increase in demand for energy services in the coming decades. Especially in developing countries, a catch up is foreseen. Efficiency improvements and use of more efficient technologies nevertheless enable a decrease of total primary energy supply between 2014 and 2050 (-21%). Furthermore, the final electricity demand triples in this scenario (up to 241 EJ by 2050) of which 73% is met by photovoltaics and wind. Electricity should be derived from 100% renewable sources by as soon as 2040. Despite the rapid decarbonization, the carbon budget for 1.5 ̊C is exceeded. In total, 680 Gt CO2 is emitted from fossil fuel combustion and cement between 2014 and 2050, of which more than 78% is emitted between 2014 and 2030. Total additional negative emissions would still be required of between 370 and 587 Gt CO2 by the end of this century. A potential pitfall of the proposed transition is that the unilateral focus on mitigating climate change could result in new environmental problems such as intoxication of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (UNEP, 2016). Integrated research is required to understand the implications and make trade-offs more explicit.

energy transition
Climate Mitigation
1.5 degrees
energy
backcasting
Scenario planning

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a0df8a13-e477-4f44-817b-def39496d679

Student theses

master thesis

© 2017 Pieter van Exter