A food chain-based ecological risk assessment model for oil spills in the Arctic environment

A food chain-based ecological risk assessment model for oil spills in the Arctic environment

Fahd, Faisal (Memorial University of Newfoundland)
Yang, M. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science)
Khan, Faisal (Memorial University of Newfoundland)
Veitch, Brian (Memorial University of Newfoundland)

2021-05

This paper investigates the linkage between the acute impacts on apex marine mammals with polar cod responses to an oil spill. It proposes a Bayesian network-based model to link these direct and indirect effects on the apex marine mammals. The model predicts a recruitment collapse (for the scenarios considered), causing a higher risk of mortality of polar bears, beluga whales, and Narwhals in the Arctic region. Whales (adult and calves) were predicted to be at higher risk when the spill was under thick ice, while adult polar bears were at higher risk when the spill occurred on thin ice. A spill over the thick ice caused the least risk to whale and adult polar bears. The spill's timing and location have a significant impact on the animals in the Arctic region due to its unique sea ice dynamics, simple food web, and short periods of food abundance.

Arctic
Arctic risk
Ecological risk assessment
Environmental risk
Food web
Oil spill

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a1e1d01b-9081-4c46-b5d4-5fe5e181ee8e

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112164

0025-326X

Marine Pollution Bulletin, 166

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2021 Faisal Fahd, M. Yang, Faisal Khan, Brian Veitch