Print Email Facebook Twitter Estimating Choice Models to Quantify the Effect of Herding on the Decision to Evacuate Title Estimating Choice Models to Quantify the Effect of Herding on the Decision to Evacuate: Application of a Serious Gaming Experimental Setup Author van den Berg, M. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) van Nes, R. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) Hoogendoorn, S.P. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) Department Transport and Planning Date 2018-08-23 Abstract Insight into factors influencing the choices people make in case of an evacuation from a natural disaster can help governments and emergency management personnel to manage people in case of such a situation. One of the aspects that influences the choices that people make in such a situation is herding. Since herding has not been quantified, this paper focuses on quantifying the effect of herding on the decision to evacuate by using an experimental setup that is based on the serious game Everscape. Around 400 people participated in 13 experiments with this setup. Choice models were estimated with the data from these experiments by including observable characteristics of herding as an attribute into the utility function. It is concluded that an important step is made in quantifying herding. It is shown that the more people someone sees leaving, the more inclined this person is to leave. Seeing people leave has more impact than seeing people stay. When people have no information from official sources, they tend to use other people as a source of information. In case of a disaster, this might result in following people who make the situation even more dangerous (for themselves and possibly for others as well). The information provided by official sources is therefore essential in managing people in the best possible way in case of a natural disaster. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a2aaf0a0-519f-4a37-9fc0-17c643ac61a2 DOI https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118784404 ISSN 0361-1981 Source Transportation Research Record, 2672 (1), 161-170 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2018 M. van den Berg, R. van Nes, S.P. Hoogendoorn Files PDF 0361198118784404.pdf 337.6 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:a2aaf0a0-519f-4a37-9fc0-17c643ac61a2/datastream/OBJ/view