Blue limits of the Blue Planet: An exploratory analysis of safe operating spaces for human water use under deep uncertainty

Blue limits of the Blue Planet: An exploratory analysis of safe operating spaces for human water use under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, J.H.
Timmermans, J.S.

Technology, Policy and Management

Multi Actor Systems

2012-06-18

In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have identified nine earth-system processes and associated thresholds which, if crossed, are expected to generate unacceptable environmental change. These include among others climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and global freshwater use. Rockström et al. provide only a best guess for the limits to global freshwater use. Molden (2009) concurs with Rockström et al. that there are physical limits to human interventions in natural processes. However, these limits are critically depended on local conditions, the role of management, and financial and institutional capacity in magnifying or ameliorating problems, and estimates of these limits are plagued by uncertainty. In case of the limits to the world water system, these uncertainties arise out of conflicting models, regional variations, limitation of expansion of water use through financial and institutional capacity, and uncertainty about the realization and efficiency of trans-boundary water transfers. This paper aims at investigating more thoroughly the limits to global freshwater use. To this end, the behavior of a dynamic model of the world water balance is explored across a wide variety of uncertainties. We find that the dynamics at a global level are not substantially affected by this. This is explained in light of the order of magnitude difference between annual human water use and annual runoff.

exploratory modeling and analysis
global change
safe operating space
global limits
ANEMI
world water models
uncertainty

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a481a0b9-9cc2-4e93-8423-09a606feaf29

CESUN 2012: 3rd International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, 18-20 June 2012

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conference paper

(c) 2012 The Author(s)
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