Print Email Facebook Twitter Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models Title Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models Author Auping, W. Pruyt, E. Kwakkel, J.H. Faculty Technology, Policy and Management Department Multi Actor Systems Date 2012-07-26 Abstract High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In order to create insight in this systems behaviour in the coming 40 years, an Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis study was performed. Three different models have been developed representing different views on copper supply and demand. The behaviour of these models shows crisis-like behaviour for the copper price, and often a declining consump-tion of refined copper. Six different policy options have been explored, individu-ally and in combinations, for their robustness in counteracting undesirable behav-iours. The results of these tests are that emphasising recycling, and the develop-ment of strategic reserves are potentially helpful. Subject CopperMineral ScarcitySystem DynamicsEMAESDMA To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:afda83f7-66fd-452c-baf2-b021007704a0 Publisher System Dynamics Society ISBN 978-1-935056-10-2 Source Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 22-26 July 2012 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights (c) 2012 Auping, W.Pruyt, E.Kwakkel, J.H. Files PDF 288250.pdf 1.09 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:afda83f7-66fd-452c-baf2-b021007704a0/datastream/OBJ/view