Print Email Facebook Twitter Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil Title Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach Author Moncada Escudero, J.A. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie; Universiteit Utrecht) Verstegen, J. A. (University of Münster) Posada Duque, J.A. (TU Delft BT/Biotechnology and Society) Junginger, M. (Universiteit Utrecht) Lukszo, Z. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie) Faaij, A. (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen) Weijnen, M.P.C. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie) Date 2018 Abstract The Brazilian government aims to increase the share of biofuels in the energy mix to around 18% by 2030, which implies an increase of ethanol production from currently 27 bln liters to over 50 bln liters per year. Biofuel policies play an important role in ethanol production, consumption, and investment in processing capacity. Nevertheless, a clear understanding of how current policies affect the evolution of the market is lacking. We developed a spatially-explicit agent-based model to analyze the impact of different blend mandates and taxes levied on gasoline, hydrous, and anhydrous ethanol on investment in processing capacity and on production and consumption of ethanol. The model uses land use projections by the PCRaster Land Use Change model and incorporates the institutions governing the actors’ strategic decision making with regard to production and consumption of ethanol, and the institutions governing the interaction among actors. From the investigated mix of policy measures, we find that an increase of the gasoline tax leads to the highest increased investments in sugarcane processing capacity. We also find that a gasoline tax above 1.23 R$/l and a tax exemption for hydrous ethanol may lead to doubling the production of ethanol by 2030 (relative to 2016). Subject Agent-based modelingBiofuel policiesBrazilEthanolInstitutional analysisSupply chain To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b428f68f-455f-410e-8dae-4cc0fba8e896 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.09.015 ISSN 0301-4215 Source Energy Policy, 123, 619-641 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2018 J.A. Moncada Escudero, J. A. Verstegen, J.A. Posada Duque, M. Junginger, Z. Lukszo, A. Faaij, M.P.C. Weijnen Files PDF 1_s2.0_S0301421518306207_main.pdf 20.21 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:b428f68f-455f-410e-8dae-4cc0fba8e896/datastream/OBJ/view