Print Email Facebook Twitter Probabilistic downtime analysis for complex marine projects Title Probabilistic downtime analysis for complex marine projects: A state-of-the-art model based on Markov theory to generate binary workability sequences for sequential operations Author Rip, J. Contributor Jonkman, S.N. (mentor) Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (mentor) Morales Napoles, O. (mentor) Hendriks, A.J.H. (mentor) Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Hydraulic Engineering Date 2015-12-11 Abstract A marine operations encounters downtime if its operational limit is exceeded during project execution. Accurate information about the expected downtime during a marine project is important information in the tender phase of such a project. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to give insight in the available methods for downtime analysis in different categories of marine operations and to examine the applicability of a new stochastic model to use in downtime simulations for complex projects. The proposed `modular Markov model' with linked Markov chains abstracts the actual metocean conditions by producing binary `workability sequences' for each operation (i.e. states representing whether a time step is `workable' or `not workable' given the operational limit of the operation). This model is able to generate workability sequences for individual operations and both coupled and uncoupled sequential operations, with operational limits determined by any number of metocean parameters. A small-scale validation on 6 operational limits and an application on a case-study project (offshore wind farm foundation installation) showed that workability sequences of individual operations are described realistically (i.e. including seasonality and persistency) and that the model yields promising results for it to be suitable to analyse the downtime risk of complex marine projects. It is however recommended that the validation is extended and that an uncertainty analysis is performed (to quantify the parametric and model uncertainty). Subject downtime analysismarine operationmarine projectoperational limitsequential operationsparallel operationsworkability sequenceMarkov chainlinked Markov chainsoffshore wind farmsimulation To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c8ce58b7-3ef8-429a-b61a-36cd3675077c Embargo date 2017-12-11 Part of collection Student theses Document type master thesis Rights (c) 2015 Rip, J. Files PDF MSc_Thesis_Jolien_Rip_-_P ... alysis.pdf 5.3 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:c8ce58b7-3ef8-429a-b61a-36cd3675077c/datastream/OBJ/view