A Very Long Term Forecast for the development of the Cargo Flows in the le-Havre – Hamburg range

A Very Long Term Forecast for the development of the Cargo Flows in the le-Havre – Hamburg range

van Dorsser, J.C.M. (j.c.m.vandorsser@tudelft.nl) (TU Delft, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Hydraulic Engineering)
Wolters, M.A. (milou.wolters@rws.nl) (TU Delft, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Hydraulic Engineering)

2010-06-22

The development of the Dutch ports and waterways has historically gone hand in hand since the waterways have always provided a primary access route to the Hinterland. Any vision on the development of the Dutch waterway system will therefore require a vision on the developments of the ports in the region and vice versa. The Dutch waterway system contains hundreds of hydraulic structures such as storm surge barriers, sluices, ship locks, and bridges. The projected lifetime of these structures is generally about 100 years and the total replacement costs are estimated at about 15 billion Euros. Rijkswaterstaat, the responsible waterway authority, now desires to develop a replacement strategy that takes the possible developments over the lifetime of the infrastructure into account in their asset management process. In March 2009 a project commenced to, amongst others, develop a model that provides insight in the possible developments of (and on) the main waterway network in the Netherlands up to the year 2100. On the basis of this model a methodology will be developed for the evaluation of various replacement strategies. Insight in the future use of the inland waterways depends on the development of continental and port related cargo flows as well as on the competitiveness of river barge transportation versus other modes of transport. The port related import/export flows can be based on a very long term forecast for the Le-Havre – Hamburg range in combination with some assumptions on the market share of the various ports within this range. This paper discusses the challenging task of providing a very long term forecast for the Le- Havre – Hamburg Range. The methodology and preliminary results discussed will indicate the possibility to develop a very long term forecast up to 2100.

port throughput
traffic forecast

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d3810cd0-b0ff-4daf-9341-4729b6148fc3

Conference proceedings

conference paper

(c) 2010 van Dorsser, J.C.M.; Wolters, M.A.