Characterization of Long-period Ship Wave Loading and Vessel Speed for Risk Assessment for Rock Groyne Designs via Extreme Value Analysis

Characterization of Long-period Ship Wave Loading and Vessel Speed for Risk Assessment for Rock Groyne Designs via Extreme Value Analysis

Memar, S. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Morales Napoles, O. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Hofland, Bas (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Melling, Gregor (Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (BAW))

Castanier, Bruno (editor)
Cepin, Marko (editor)
Bigaud, David (editor)
Berenguer, Christophe (editor)

2021

During the last two decades, increasing vessel size in major German estuaries has led to the significant change of the local loading regime i.e. increased importance of ship-induced waves and currents. As a consequence, the intensity of ship-induced loads has increased considerably, resulting in damage to rock structures such as revetments, training walls, and groynes. Research into the causes of rock structure deterioration by the Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (BAW) has shown that for large ships in relatively narrow waterways, the long-period primary ship wave loading has become the most prescient factor for rock structure damage. Looking into the future, it can be expected that the increase in the vessel dimensions will lead to an increase in the ship-wave loading. For this reason, analysing long-term changing trends of long-period ship waves and vessel speed to understand the wave-structure interaction is of significant importance. In this study, the stochastic characterization of long-period primary wave height, drawdown, and speed of the vessel through the water at Juelssand in the Lower Elbe Estuary was analysed via extreme value analysis and copula modeling, and the bivariate return periods were calculated. The one-parameter bivariate copula was utilized to analyse the data. The dependence pattern between the variables was investigated using five parametric copula families: Gaussian, Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, and student's t.

Bivariate copula
Extreme value analysis
Juelssand
Long-period ship wave
Rock groyne
Wave-structure interaction

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:dccd9276-0783-4e50-8a53-d7326d92f617

https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_302-cd

Research Publishing Services

2022-03-23

978-981-18-2016-8

Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference

31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, 2021-09-19 → 2021-09-23, Angers, France

Accepted Author Manuscript

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2021 S. Memar, O. Morales Napoles, Bas Hofland, Gregor Melling