A Bayesian hindcasting method of levee failures applied to the Breitenhagen slope failure

Kool, J.J.; Kanning, W.; Jommi, C.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

doi:10.1080/17499518.2020.1815213

A Bayesian hindcasting method of levee failures applied to the Breitenhagen slope failure

Title

A Bayesian hindcasting method of levee failures applied to the Breitenhagen slope failure

Author

Kool, J.J. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Kanning, W. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Deltares)
Jommi, C. (TU Delft Geo-engineering; Politecnico di Milano)
Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)

Date

2020

Abstract

Hindcasting of past levee failures enhances insights in the performance and vulnerability of levees. The scarcity of field evidence makes identifying the cause(s) of failure difficult. Under these circumstances, multiple scenarios and model choices are possible to characterise and to model the failure. This paper shows how probabilistic Bayesian techniques advance the procedure of hindcasting of levee failures. In the developed approach, a-priori levee information, and failure observations are systematically taken into account to determine the most likely scenario and the most representative model choices to characterise the failure most accurately. Observations, such as the slip surface, are taken into account in the probability estimates. The levee failure near Breitenhagen, Germany (2013) is used as a case study. The levee failed during river floods due the instability of the landside slope. The levee failure was most likely triggered by locally weak soil conditions and unexpected high water pressures due a connection between a pond on the riverside of the levee and the aquifer. These conditions were likely caused by the occurrence of a previous breach at this location. The approach developed in this paper is expected to support a more systematic and objective method of analysis of other levee failures.

Subject

Bayesian updating
flood defences
forensic analysis
Hindcasting
levee failure
slope stability

To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e00198bb-2cdf-41d5-bfa6-0deaf6d87e00

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2020.1815213

ISSN

1749-9518

Source

Georisk: assessment and management of risk for engineered systems and geohazards, 15 (4), 299-316

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