Simulating endogenous dynamics of intervention-capacity deployment

Title

Simulating endogenous dynamics of intervention-capacity deployment: Ebola outbreak in Liberia

 Author

Auping, Willem L. (TU Delft Policy Analysis) ORCID 0000-0003-1898-643X
Pruyt, E. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)
Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis) ORCID 0000-0001-9447-2954

 Date

2016

 Abstract

During the first months, the 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus (EBOV) in West Africa was characterised by inadequate intervention capacities. In this paper, we investigate (1) the influence of limited but dynamic intervention capacities and their effect on the effective reproduction number, and (2) the effects of proactive versus reactive intervention approaches. We use a transmission model extended with dynamical intervention capacities. Taking into account a bandwidth for potential over- and under-reporting in reported Ebola virus disease cases, the model is used to generate ensembles of plausible scenarios. Next, it is used for testing the effectiveness of more proactive approaches in extending intervention capacities across these scenarios. We show that reactive approaches in extending intervention capacities can lead to continued under-capacity, and, consequently, to an increase of the effective reproduction number and to accelerated EBOV transmission. Proactive approaches, which take deployment delays, doubling times of diseases, and potential under-reporting of the number of cases into account, help in limiting the total number of cases and deaths if the effective reproduction number in isolation is lower than the effective reproduction number outside of isolation. If the effective reproduction number in isolation is higher, proactive intervention policies still outperform reactive intervention policies.

 Subject

Ebola virus disease
Intervention capacity
Reproduction number
System Dynamics
Scenario discovery

 To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e2cf734b-7762-46d2-9d20-5c397cb5606a

 DOI

https://doi.org/10.1080/23302674.2015.1128576

 Embargo date

2017-01-04

 ISSN

2330-2674

 Source

International Journal of Systems Science: Operations & Logistics, 1

 Part of collection

Institutional Repository

 Document type

journal article

 Rights

© 2016 Willem L. Auping, E. Pruyt, J.H. Kwakkel
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