The dichotomous Markov process with nonparametric test application; a decision support method in long-term river behavioural analysis: The Zayandeh Rud River; a case study from central Iran

The dichotomous Markov process with nonparametric test application; a decision support method in long-term river behavioural analysis: The Zayandeh Rud River; a case study from central Iran

Fasihi Harandi, M.
Yarahmadian, S.
Sepehrifar, M.
Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Hydraulic Engineering

2014-10-31

We use the Dichotomous Markov Noise (DMN) model with constant transition rates to describe the dynamics of fluctuations in the water level as a stochastic process, which is imposed on river discharge changes. By applying this model, two different regimes are determined for the long-term behaviour of the river. Based on these regimes, we define two nonparametric classes of the overall increasing/decreasing nature of the water level in the long-term behaviour, which are separated by an exponential steady state regime. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric testing procedure to test exponentially (steady state regime) against an alternative overall decreasing level distribution. The proposed test predicts the long-term regime behaviour of the river. The mathematical tools introduced to handle the problem should be of general use and the testing procedure can be considered as a new mathematical tool in the study of water level dynamics. Under conditions of data austerity and as a case of study, we examine the stochastic characteristics of the Zayandeh Rud1 River (Isfahan, Iran) water level.

Zayandeh Rud River
DMN
real-time river management
extreme events modeling
Nnonparametric Test

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:e753af61-43e0-4ddb-ac11-ac97459ff5cc

2015-10-31

1436-3240

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28 (7), 2014; Authors version

Institutional Repository

journal article

(c) 2015 Springer Verlag