Print Email Facebook Twitter Assessing the capacity of adaptive policy pathways to adapt on time by mapping trigger values to their outcomes Title Assessing the capacity of adaptive policy pathways to adapt on time by mapping trigger values to their outcomes Author Raso, L. (TU Delft Policy Analysis) Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis) Timmermans, Jos (TU Delft Policy Analysis) Date 2019 Abstract Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. "On time" means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the "trigger-probability" mapping and the "trigger-consequences" mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy. Subject AdaptationAdaptive policiesAfsluitdijkChanging extremesClimate changeExtremesFlood protectionMonitoringResilienceRisk management To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f661139a-068c-40c1-88c3-43bda7cdd5dc DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061716 ISSN 2071-1050 Source Sustainability, 11 (6) Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2019 L. Raso, J.H. Kwakkel, Jos Timmermans Files PDF sustainability_11_01716.pdf 585.4 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:f661139a-068c-40c1-88c3-43bda7cdd5dc/datastream/OBJ/view