How to Explore and Manage the Future? Formal Model Analysis for Complex Issues under Deep Uncertainty

How to Explore and Manage the Future? Formal Model Analysis for Complex Issues under Deep Uncertainty

Keijser, B.M.J.
Kwakkel, J.H.
Pruyt, E.

Technology, Policy and Management

Multi Actor Systems

2012-07-22

Formal Model Analysis (FMA) covers a group of methods and techniques to study structurebehaviour relations in best-estimate models. That is, FMA aims to identify the structural causes for the particular dynamics of a single best-estimate model. Under deep uncertainty, the notion of a best-estimate model is however troublesome. Then Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) can be used to handle deep uncertainty. Through EMA, an ensemble of models is created and analysed. This paper argues that FMA can strengthen EMA by assisting in generating plausible dynamics, exploring and analysing future worlds, identifying plausible policy levers and exploring and comparing various policy options under deep uncertainty. The generation of plausible dynamics is facilitated by deliberately changing model structures that have a large effect on the model behaviour. The other three ways of strengthening EMA rely on identifying the model structure that determines desired or non-desired model behaviours. We illustrate the combination of EMA and FMA using Ford’s Loop Deactivation Method to explore and analyse the behaviours generated by a generic model of the scarcity of minerals and metals.

Formal Model Analysis
Exploratory Modelling and Analysis
Loop Deactivation Method

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f7e7ea41-0bcb-40c6-8a15-94c012ad004f

System Dynamics Society

978-1-935056-10-2

Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 22-26 July 2012

Institutional Repository

conference paper

(c) 2012 The Author(s)