Print Email Facebook Twitter The risks of extreme load extrapolation Title The risks of extreme load extrapolation Author van Eijk, S.F. Bos, R. Bierbooms, W.A.A.M. (TU Delft Wind Energy) Date 2017 Abstract An important problem in wind turbine design is the prediction of the 50-year load, as set by the IEC 61400-1 Design Load Case (DLC) 1.1. In most cases, designers work with limited simulation budgets and are forced to use extrapolation schemes to obtain the required return level. That this is no easy task is proven by the many studies dedicated to finding the best distribution and fitting method to capture the extreme load behavior as well as possible. However, the issue that is often overlooked is the effect that the sheer uncertainty around the 50-year load has on a design process. In this paper, we use a collection of 96 years’ worth of extreme loads to perform a large number of hypothetical design problems. The results show that, even with sample sizesexceeding N D 103 10 min extremes, designs are often falsely rejected or falsely accepted based on an overor underpredicted 50-year load. Therefore, designers are advised to be critical of the outcome of DLC 1.1 and should be prepared to invest in large sample sizes. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fc7fad20-1f64-48c5-83c7-9323cb9c5f76 Source Wind Energy Science, 2, 377–386 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2017 S.F. van Eijk, R. Bos, W.A.A.M. Bierbooms Files PDF wes_2_377_2017.pdf 11.11 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:fc7fad20-1f64-48c5-83c7-9323cb9c5f76/datastream/OBJ/view