Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

Eker, S.; Kwakkel, J.H.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.029

Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

Title

Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

Author

Eker, S. (TU Delft Policy Analysis; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg)
Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)

Date

2018

Abstract

Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) is a prominent model-based approach for dealing with deep uncertainty. MORDM has four phases: a systems analytical problem formulation, a search phase to generate candidate solutions, a trade-off analysis where different strategies are compared across many objectives, and a scenario discovery phase to identify the vulnerabilities. In its original inception, the search phase identifies optimal strategies for a single reference scenario for deep uncertainties, which may result in missing locally near-optimal, but globally more robust strategies. Recent work has addressed this issue by generating candidate strategies for multiple policy-relevant scenarios. In this paper, we incorporate a systematic scenario selection procedure in the search phase to consider both policy relevance and scenario diversity. The results demonstrate an increased tradeoff variety besides higher robustness, compared to the solutions found for a reference scenario. Future research can routinize multi-scenario search in MORDM with the aid of software packages.

Subject

Multi-objective optimization
Robust decision making
Scenario diversity
Scenario selection

To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:10b6ab1b-b4da-4c4c-b003-b5d57c1ab22a

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.029

Embargo date

2020-04-19

ISSN

1364-8152

Source

Environmental Modelling & Software, 105, 201-216