Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

Bintanja, Richard (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI); Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)
van der Wiel, K. (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
van der Linden, E. C. (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI); Wageningen University & Research)
Reusen, J.M. (TU Delft Astrodynamics & Space Missions; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
Bogerd, L. (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

2020

The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation
fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase
markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by
atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts.

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d69b715-8de5-4124-8d1f-df20f7ec562b

https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869

2375-2548

Science Advances, 6 (7)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2020 Richard Bintanja, K. van der Wiel, E. C. van der Linden, J.M. Reusen, L. Bogerd