Print Email Facebook Twitter Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard Title Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard Author Vousdoukas, Michalis I. (Joint Research Centre; University of the Aegean) Mentaschi, Lorenzo (Joint Research Centre) Voukouvalas, Evangelos (Engineering - Ingegneria Informatica SpA R and D Lab.) Verlaan, M. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics; Deltares) Jevrejeva, Svetlana (National Oceanography Center) Jackson, Luke P. (University of Oxford) Feyen, Luc (Joint Research Centre) Date 2018 Abstract Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:21b3145e-b73c-4172-9baa-b17e92db6bde DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w ISSN 2041-1723 Source Nature Communications, 9 (1) Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2018 Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, M. Verlaan, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Luke P. Jackson, Luc Feyen Files PDF 45585233_s41467_018_04692_w.pdf 4.16 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:21b3145e-b73c-4172-9baa-b17e92db6bde/datastream/OBJ/view