Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

Zhang, C.
Qin, C.

Delft University of Technology

2014-07-20

This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in Beijing and analyzes the issues of traffic congestion and air pollution caused by them. Second, the method system dynamics is justified to analyze the concerned issues of Beijing vehicle and the attendant traffic congestion and air pollution. Third, qualitative analysis is done to explore what possible policies the Beijing government can adopt to increase the percentage of electrical vehicles (EVs) and control the number of total private vehicles at the same time. A causal loop diagram is drawn to facilitate the way of thinking. Afterwards, a quantitative SD model about the system is built based on the causal loop diagram and qualitative analysis is made. Finally, the SD model is simulated to explore the plausible future trend about private vehicles and study the implications of different policies.

system dynamics
vensim
Beijing
electric vehicle
air pollution
traffic congestion

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:38ea15bb-7e5e-4464-a00f-28b87e28559e

System Dynamics Society

32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Delft, The Netherlands, 20-24 July 2014; Authors version

Institutional Repository

conference paper

(c) 2014 The Author(s)