Aggregation of energy consumption forecasts across spatial levels

Aggregation of energy consumption forecasts across spatial levels: Using CNN-LSTM forecasts of lower spatial levels to forecast on higher spatial levels

Borst, Twan (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)

Cavalcante Siebert, L. (mentor)
Kuilman, S.K. (mentor)
de Weerdt, M.M. (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Computer Science and Engineering

CSE3000 Research Project

2023-06-28

Bottom up load forecasting, is a technique where energy consumption forecasts are made on lower spatial levels, after which the resulting forecasts are aggregated to form forecasts of higher spatial levels. With the current move to renewable energy sources and the importance of reducing the strain on an already congested electricity grid, accurately forecasting both the location and time of future energy consumption has become more important than ever. To this end, this paper analyses the impact of applying bottom up load forecasting to different spatial levels on the electricity grid, including appliance, household, community and city spatial levels. Energy consumption data for these spatial levels were gathered from the 15-minute Texas and California datasets from Pecan Street Dataport. The results obtained in this study, suggest that energy consumption volatility at lower spacial levels and forecast difficulty at higher spacial levels, play an important role in the performance of applying the bottom up load forecasting technique to energy consumption forecasting problems.

bottom up load forecasting
energy consumption forecasting
spacial levels
forecast aggregation

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:391d6301-3d00-4035-9be3-ba9bbd478891

Student theses

bachelor thesis

© 2023 Twan Borst