A bright future for system dynamics: From art to computational science and beyond

A bright future for system dynamics: From art to computational science and beyond

Pruyt, E.
Kwakkel, J.H.

Technology, Policy and Management

Multi Actor Systems

2012-07-22

This paper presents a bright future for quantitative System Dynamics Modeling. This future relates to all major issues and grand challenges which all happen to be dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. Combining System Dynamics Modeling and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis allows one to generate, explore and deeply analyze tens of thousands of plausible scenarios related to such deeply uncertain dynamically complex issues, and to design and test adaptive policies over all plausible scenarios. By doing so, the art of System Dynamics becomes the computational science of System Dynamics. This innovative approach is explained in this paper starting from the core of System Dynamics modeling, and is illustrated with real world applications (pandemic shocks, resource scarcity, and energy transitions). However, more is needed than the brightest analysts and the best analyses for decision makers to decide and take action when facing uncertain complex issues: that is what experiential System Dynamics gaming is needed for. Only when heart and mind are aligned will knowledge and understanding become effective. The use of experiential System Dynamics gaming for conquering the heart of decision makers is illustrated with real world examples too.

dynamic complexity
deep uncertainty
SD
EMA
ESDMA

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3f5b22cb-1552-4ef4-88bf-9f6d6deb14c3

System Dynamics Society

978-1-935056-10-2

Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 22-26 July 2012

Institutional Repository

conference paper

(c) 2012 Pruyt, E., Kwakkel, J.H.