Adaptive Port Planning for Phase II of New Priok Development in Indonesia

Adaptive Port Planning for Phase II of New Priok Development in Indonesia

Mustarakh Gelfi, Gelfi (TU Delft Civil Engineering and Geosciences; TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering)

Vellinga, Tiedo (mentor)
Taneja, Poonam (mentor)
de Gijt, Jarit (graduation committee)
Hasmi, Abrari (graduation committee)
Hamonangan, Delon (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

New Priok Development

2017-01-01

The initial masterplan of New Priok Development in Indonesia was developed in 2012 and is being updated to cater to new throughput demands. The masterplan of Phase I will be done as planned in which CT 1 was already operated since 2016 and CT 2 and CT 3 are in the final phase of land reclamation. In the new masterplan (2017), Phase II of the development will start in 2030 – onwards, depending on future conditions. However, whether the development of Phase II (continuation of Phase I) will be needed is still a question for the Port Authority. Hence, this study is about creating robust terminal masterplan of Phase II (2030 – onwards) which will remain functional under future uncertainties. The methodology/framework being discussed is Adaptive Port Planning (APP) which is considering flexibility design of port masterplan. Flexibility is very relevant for projects with high investment and surrounded by future uncertainties. In this study, considering the long-term project characteristics, the framework of Adaptive Port Planning (APP) Scenario-Based planning is developed. As a definition, the scenario-based approach helps to open up the perspective of the future condition of the port as a horizon of possibility and it gives chance to anticipate the vulnerabilities. Developing the scenarios are based on defined critical uncertainties using a 2x2 matrix approach. The economy (related to cargo performance) and environment are defined to be the axes of the matrix. The outcome is four plausible scenarios: Green Growth, Business As Usual, Moderate Expansion, and No Expansion. The next steps are examining these scenarios through some analysis to look at the characteristics and the promising industries in each scenario. In order to get the terminal needs in each scenario, traffic analysis in Port of Tanjung Priok is required; identifying the key influential cargos and commodities. There will also be a projection of containers based on defined scenarios. Producing the robust masterplan will lead us to a monitoring system and contingency planning for some highly relevant signposts. These signposts are the relevant future uncertainties which are not covered yet in the defined alternative layouts. Each of the signposts has to be analysed to prepare the contingency plans, mostly for IPC and some others for related stakeholders. In conclusion, this study proposes the adaptive framework of planning the terminal design for Phase II of New Priok, namely Adaptive Port Planning (APP) Scenario-Based Planning. It gives sequential work flow on designing future masterplan of the port, especially for the case of Phase II of New Priok. The alternative layouts and adaptive actions for IPC are some important outcomes of the framework. The port has to realize that uncertainties persevere and are very likely to influence the decision making for future layouts. Instead of ignoring uncertainties, the port needs to make contingency planning to deal with them. Hopefully, this study has benefits to make a robust terminal masterplan for Phase II of New Priok Development.

Indonesia ports
port design
port planning
scenario planning

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:405a2c13-5280-4b30-8ed2-d76993ce64e6

Student theses

master thesis

© 2017 Gelfi Mustarakh Gelfi