Combining COVID-19 models with models for economical impact

Combining COVID-19 models with models for economical impact

de Heus, Yfke (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)

Vuik, Cornelis (mentor)

Delft University of Technology

Applied Mathematics

2022-08-30

The COVID-19 pandemic has infected millions of people worldwide and many countries have suffered one of the worst recessions in history. While there are numerous studies of mathematical models trying to predict and understand the evolution of the pandemic, research into the effects of the coronavirus on the economy remained in the background. With the aim of better understanding and predicting the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, this research will investigate the possibility of a connection between an infectious disease model and an economic model. This work includes an analysis of an infectious disease model called the classical SIR model. In addition, it contains an analysis on the logistic model, which will be used as economical model. These analyses will be used to find a connecting factor between the two models, after which an extension to both base models will provide a combined model. The combined model is applied to data on COVID-19 cases in The Netherlands and ultimately provides a numerically stable forecast of economic growth applied to the Amsterdam Exchange Index and the turnover index of the Dutch hospitality industry.

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:41d0f6bb-2222-496d-809c-de28f73996aa

Student theses

bachelor thesis

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