Print Email Facebook Twitter Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements Title Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements Author Fu, Guangliang (TU Delft Mathematical Physics) Heemink, A.W. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics) Lu, S. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics) Segers, AJ (TNO) Weber, Konradin (University of Applied Sciences, Düsseldorf) Lin, H.X. (TU Delft Mathematical Physics) Date 2016-07-26 Abstract The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved. Subject aviation adviceenkfaircraft datavolcanic ashforecastingOA-Fund TU Delft To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:61f82aee-9b34-4f8a-b7d1-d8cc94bc3530 DOI https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016 ISSN 1680-7316 Source Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (online), 16 (9189-9200), 9189-9200 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2016 Guangliang Fu, A.W. Heemink, S. Lu, AJ Segers, Konradin Weber, H.X. Lin Files PDF acp_16_9189_2016.pdf 4.97 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:61f82aee-9b34-4f8a-b7d1-d8cc94bc3530/datastream/OBJ/view