Print Email Facebook Twitter Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks Title Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks Author Zemp, Delphine Clara (Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Schleussner, Carl Friedrich (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Climate Analytics) Barbosa, Henrique M J (Universidade de São Paulo) Hirota, Marina (Campus Universitario Reitor Joao David Ferreira Lima; University of Campinas) Montade, Vincent (Georg-August-University) Sampaio, Gilvan (National Institute for Space Research (INPE)) Staal, Arie (Wageningen University & Research) Wang-Erlandsson, L. (TU Delft Water Resources; Stockholm University) Rammig, Anja (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Technische Universität München; University of Göttingen) Date 2017-03-13 Abstract Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7e635d35-2e6a-4d30-a1e0-6daac8a8b7a6 DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681 ISSN 2041-1723 Source Nature Communications, 8 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2017 Delphine Clara Zemp, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Henrique M J Barbosa, Marina Hirota, Vincent Montade, Gilvan Sampaio, Arie Staal, L. Wang-Erlandsson, Anja Rammig Files PDF ncomms14681.pdf 1.45 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:7e635d35-2e6a-4d30-a1e0-6daac8a8b7a6/datastream/OBJ/view