Pumped Hydroelectricity Modeling in Long Term Oriented Studies of the Secondary Regulation Band Market in the Spanish Electricity System

Forecasting the behavior of ancillary services markets is crucial for the economic activity of utilities. These markets represent a major source of uncertainty for the final electricity price, as they are subject to regulatory policies, competitors’ strategies, technology development, climatology, among many other factors. Therefore the need of models for obtaining long-term oriented forecasts of the most crucial parameters that form this market. Taking an existing forecasting model, the present Master’s Thesis is focused on modeling pumped hydroelectricity storage (PHES) resources to the highest possible degree of detail, and their incorporation to the forecasts, allowing to evaluate their capability of providing secondary band to the Spanish electricity system. A number of algorithms have been developed for validation and disaggregation of the provisional program obtained from the previous markets in the Spanish daily sequence, for calculating turbining-pumping cycles, for incorporating additional (forced) PHES resources to Endesa’s supply curve, and for adjusting the offered band among those resources that have been accepted after the market clearing to participate in the secondary reserve provision. Additionally, this Master’s Thesis is committed to the documentation of the model so that future developments may be made taking this work as a reference document. The obtained results were satisfactory, as the main objectives of the thesis have been fulfilled. The results show an increase in the participation of PHES resources compared to the reference model, and very accurate forecasts of the secondary regulation reserves market are reached, as concluded by a thorough validation processes.

Subject

Electricity Markets
Secondary regulation
Load-frequency control
Pumped storage
Spanish Electricity System
Endesa
EMIN

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Student theses

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master thesis

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